Is Afghanistan ready to decide its own destiny?

US President Barack Obama’s announcement of the start of American troop withdrawals from Afghanistan, and his administration’s increasing emphasis on reconciliation with the Taliban, have been studied attentively in one capital that has a large stake in the outcome — New Delhi. India has no troops in Afghanistan,but it has invested roughly $1.5 billion to help reconstruct the country, withprojects ranging from maternity hospitals to Kabul’s electricity grid.During his visit to Afghanistan in May, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announcedadditional assistance of $500 million, over and above India’s existingcommitments. This is by far India’s largest foreign aid program, becauseAfghanistan — separated from India only by its hostile neighbour Pakistan— remains a country of vital strategic significance for India.So, what does the looming US withdrawal mean for India’s rolein Afghanistan? India has largely focused its aid efforts on buildinginstitutional capacity and developing human resources, so that Afghans can standon their own feet before long. One ongoing project is the construction of a newparliament building in Kabul, a symbol of India’s desire to seerepresentative institutions flourish. But it is no secret that India does notbelieve that Afghanistan is ready to dispense with the foreign forces that havebeen shoring up domestic peace. India is not a member of the United States led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), a largely Nato operation to which it was not invited to contribute, given Pakistani sensitivities about a possible Indian military presence in Afghanistan. But India regards the foreign military presence as indispensable to promoting political stability and economic reconstruction. Without the security provided by a serious troop presence, the kind of development projects in which India is engaged would become impossible. No one in India’s governmentreally expects US forces to disappear overnight from Afghanistan, despite theelimination of Osama bin Laden. The plan is to withdraw only 10,000 US troops bythe year-end. Later, when winter sets in (traditionally the season when militaryactivity declines ), America will withdraw another 5,000. But Obama says that heintends to bring the 30,000 “surge” troops back home by next summer,after the Afghan snows melt and the US election season starts heating up. Evenif he does, 68,000 US troops would remain — twice the number deployed inAfghanistan when he became President. By 2014, the US intends toreduce its operational presence to a role largely confined to supporting Afghanforces. Even that does not imply full withdrawal. After all, the rationale forthe original US intervention was to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safehaven for the next Bin Laden. Indications are that the US will maintain about20,000 troops in Afghanistan, even in the most modest scenario. Indians haveevery reason to be relieved. An Afghanistan without ISAF will be prey to themachinations of Pakistan’s notorious Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI),which created, trained, financed, and directed the Afghan Taliban in the 1990s.As a result, America’s interest in reconciliation with theTaliban is viewed with concern in India. After long rejecting this approach (onthe reasonable grounds that there can be no such thing as a good terrorist),India has come around to accepting dialogue with those Taliban elements that areprepared to renounce violence. Obama speaks of dealing with Talibanmembers who agree to break with al-Qaida and abide by the Afghan Constitution.But India is wary of those who, under Pakistani tutelage, might pretend to bereborn constitutionalists, but seize the first opportunity after a US withdrawalto devour the regime that compromises with them. This is why Indiastresses the importance of improving the Afghan government’s capacity tofight and overcome terrorism. The role of Pakistan — whose over-ambitiousmilitary has made no secret of its desire to control the government in Kabul inorder to gain “strategic depth” — remains of serious concern,particularly given China’s recent progress in making Pakistan its own zoneof “strategic depth,” with access from the Karakoram mountains tothe Arabian Sea. India shares America’s commitment to whatObama described last December as the “longterm security and development ofthe Afghan people.” But, for India, any process of reconciliation shouldbe Afghan-led, inclusive, and transparent. India fully supports the “redlines” affirming Afghan leadership and ownership of the negotiatingprocess laid down by President Hamid Karzai’s government in its London andKabul communiqués. The bottom line for India remains theAfghan people’s right to decide their own destiny. It views theinternational community’s role as being to help Afghans accomplish that.And it doesn’t believe that Afghanistan is ready for the world to give upon it yet.